Sankhya: The Indian Journal of Statistics

1997, Volume 59, Series B, Pt. 1, 108-122

ESTIMATION OF BIRTH INTERVALS AND PARITY PROGRESSION RATIOS FROM VITAL RATES

By

ARVIND PANDEY, International Institute for Population Sciences, India

And

C. M. SUCHINDRAN, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA

 

SUMMARY. The paper presents a set of analytical models to estimate the distribution of birth intervals from age-parity-specific fertility rates as well as from the marginal age-and parity-specific fertility rates by taking into account mortality among women at successive ages during the reproductive life span. It is shown that we can simultaneously estimate parity progression ratios and parity distribution from the same inputs. We have also derived models ignoring mortality. In addition, we derived the distribution of last closed birth interval revealing distinctions in child spacing dynamics in the context of limiting behaviour. Further, we have illustrated our models with the 1970 US Vital Statistics on fertility and mortality.

AMS (1991) subject classification. 62P05, 62P25

Key words and phrases. Age at birth, closed birth interval, reproductive life span, parity

Full paper (PDF)