Sankhya: The Indian Journal of Statistics

1999, Volume 61, Series B, Pt. 2, pp. 237-260

STOCHASTIC MODELS OF FAMILY BUILDING : AN ANALYTICAL REVIEW AND PROSPECTIVE ISSUES

By

K.B. PATHAK, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai

SUMMARY. The family building process has been widely analysed by demographers and statisticians. A number of models describing variation in the waiting time for first birth to a woman after marriage; the number of births that occur to her in a given marital duration and distribution of closed and open birth intervals have been developed. The present paper aims to provide an analytical review of such models. Focus has been more on those models which were meant to describe variation in various components of human reproduction and the subsequent researches are the logical extensions. Strength of these models lies in the fact that they have been validated by applying to the empirical data set and these have been found useful for estimating various bio-cultural parameters of human reproduction e.g., primary as well as secondary infertility, adolescent infertility, fecundability and post-partum amenorrhea. It also elucidates analytical models developed to account for strategies of spacing and stopping rules and their consequences on the ultimate family size.

AMS (1991) subject classification.62P05, 62P25.

Key words and phrases. Fecundability, adolescent infertility, primary and secondary infertility, post partum amenorrhea, sex composition, family size.

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